[En] Ep0007 [Nikkei Future or buy Call or sell Put] Weekly Traders Tribune


“This is an outrageous mistake, and a Las Vegas gambler will not make such a mistake-if it is a surviving gambler” [Jarod Willcox]

・Nikkei futures and Nikkei option

The underlying market (or underlying market) of the Nikkei average option is the Nikkei Stock Average. It is true that this is undeniably correct, as SQ is settled based on the Nikkei Stock Average. However, when the Nikkei Stock Average moves from 9:00 to 15:00 in the morning, and it takes one hour for lunch time, it will be an index that only moves a quarter of 24 hours a day.


The underlying market, which is largely inactive for the whole day, is inconvenient for the Nikkei average. Therefore, the current situation is that option prices are priced on the basis of the Nikkei average futures (or mini) at night, etc. where the Nikkei average stock price has stopped functioning.


The trading hours of the Nikkei average futures and the Nikkei average option cover almost a full day from 9 am to 5:30 the next morning, and it can be said that they have a strong ruling relationship with each other.


・Nikkei Future or buy Call or sell Put

What can be considered here is the possibility of gaining a profit by taking an option position in line with the movement of the Nikkei average futures.


For example, if you think that the Nikkei average futures will rise, you can buy a call or sell a put, and if you think it will fall, buy a put or sell a call, and so on.


If you trade options in anticipation of future price movements of the Nikkei Futures, you may buy and sell the Nikkei Average future itself, but with the Nikkei Future with parameters that have only Delta, and a changing Delta. With options that involve time decay and volatility, it is not possible to easily compare “whichever is better” as it is a completely different derivative transaction in the first place.


・After all “only by skillful use of option characteristics”

Nikkei average futures profit and loss is simply equal to the price range away from the position’s holding price. On the other hand, the maximum loss on option buying is equal to option premium, and the maximum profit on option selling is equal to option premium.


In short, “option buying” limits losses no matter how much the position moves backwards, and benefits from forward are not limited, but accept the very disadvantage of passing time or a delta less than one.


While “selling options” benefits from the extremely favorable benefits of time lapse and delta less than one, the losses from retrogression are not limited, and the maximum profit is limited to the premium no matter how advanced the position is.


If the strong uptrends are coming to the adjustment phase and the soaring volatility is falling, it may be a good opportunity to bring in cheap call purchases towards the coming trend return. If you think the spikes and volatility are spiked but the decline is temporary, it may be a great opportunity to sell the premium put on the premium.


It is an option of the near-term ATM that the gamma value takes the maximum value, and soars in the process of ITM from OTM. The Vega value is higher in the future, but the fluctuation is slower, the Sata value is mercilessly towards maturity We will accelerate. It is very important to understand these option characteristics and make good use of them, as well as to consider the future price movements of the Nikkei average futures and to build a “profitable” position.


After all, it is only by skillful use of the option characteristics.


・To build up enough results

The answer to the question, “Do you buy Nikkei average futures or buy calls or sell put?” Will all yield different results. “, I can only say.


Simply take the option as a delta-neutral strategy, buy a call or sell a put because you think you’ll be up again, or sell a call or buy a put because you think lower. This can be done by anyone viewing a seminar video or reading a textbook.


For example, “put back spread” which is one of the most popular spreads. Many seminar videos and textbooks explain the position where profit comes from falling market prices. There is no doubt that in theory. However, even if the Nikkei average goes down as expected by actually forming a “put back spread”, I think that many people have experience that resulted in large unrealized losses. Although it was profitable to sell the futures honestly, why is it this way? “Put back spread” is not profitable just by falling market prices.


Similarly, “covered call” is also a popular option spread. I intend to cover the fall of the long position of the actuals and futures with call sales, but the market price has just fallen a little and both started to lose, and when it fell a little further, it became a big “slit” again Some people may have experience. Although “Covered call” is described as being able to cover a certain degree of decline, it can not simply be covered with it.


In order to build up sufficient results in the long run in order to achieve the goal, it is necessary to consider the option characteristics as described above and take a step into the position while watching the market trends. The biggest reason for using option trading as a means to achieve the goal, rather than just ending with just a bet of Ashesage, is that you are expecting a “big advantage ahead of you.


Thank you for reading to the end. Please look forward to the next issue.

Weekly Traders Tribune

【日経225先物オプション】専業トレーダー。Extremistan の僻地辺境、山岳地帯にひっそりと生息する Chronolynx(クロノリンクス) というユキヒョウに似たネコ科のサブスピーシーズ。好物はクズOP。2005年にFXデビュー後、2010年からオプションをメインにトレード。3.11で吹き飛んだことを切欠に、とある天才プロ集団であるクローズドギルドで勉強させてもらえることに。以来、戦友たちと切磋琢磨しつつ【ギルドの訓え】を身に付けるべく実践し、真剣に日々の取引を積み上げています。本サイトの開設は2018.07。

[Nikkei 225 option] trader. Snow leopard living in Extremistan, favorite is garbage OP. After FX debut in 2005, we trade the option to main from 2010. By noticing what we blew up in 3.11 we decided to study at a closed guild, a genius professional group. Since then, practicing to acquire [Guild's lesson] while practicing hardly with the fellows, we are accumulating daily transactions seriously. The opening of this site is 2018.07. TOKYO, JAPAN.

[Monthly profit and loss]

2019.03 +384,000 JPY
2019.02 +385,000 JPY
2019.01 +474,000 JPY
2018.12 +1,735,000 JPY
2018.11 +371,000 JPY
2018.10 +1,947,000 JPY
2018.09 +201,000 JPY
2018.08 +556,500 JPY

Emon Report for Nikkei225option trading